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Projects in conservation science and data analysis

Quantifying the Impact of Hemispheric Threats on Migratory Warblers

Joint lead author of a hemispheric analysis relating population impact to threat exposure during the annual migration cycles of 43 species of warblers in the Americas, which found that the post-breeding season is the most dangerous time for migrating birds. By mapping the footprint of conservation challenges for migratory birds across the hemisphere and combining these data with weekly species distribution models, we visualized and analyzed larger spatial and temporal patterns to identify factors seasonally associated with population declines. This work informs limiting factors for warblers to help conservation practioners put these birds on the road to recovery.

An Assessment of Ecological Value and Vulnerability

Led An Assessment of Ecological Value and Vulnerability in the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas in partnership with Oceana to inform management of the Pacific Arctic. The ecological valuation included lower trophic, fish, bird, and mammal taxa, while the vulnerability assessment included vessel traffic, fisheries, oil and gas, and climate change, resulting in a prioritization of areas of highest ecological value and vulnerability to environmental stressors for use in marine spatial planning.

Designating Important Bird Areas

Developed an original spatial method for mapping globally significant marine Important Bird Areas in collaboration with Audubon Pacific Flyway science staff. Led the publication of a scientific paper, and completed identification and nomination of Alaska’s network of >200 marine and terrestrial Important Bird Areas.

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An Assessment of Bird Tracking Data Availability in North America

Along with partners at the Smithsonian Institute and Georgetown University, we published Shortfalls in tracking data available to inform North American migratory bird conservation in a special edition of Biological Conservation detailing knowledge shortfalls in conservation science. Our study of 569 migratory bird species exposed significant tracking data gaps. We found that 51% of North American species have not been tracked, and of the 49% of species with tracking data, two-thirds have undiscoverable or inaccessible datasets.

Climate Change Vulnerability for Important Bird Areas

Led an assessment of climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea on behalf of the Seabird Working Group of the US Fish and Wildlife Service Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Led the publication of a scientific paper detailing our findings.

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Kenai Mountains to Sea Decision Support Tool

In partnership with US Fish and Wildlife Service, Kachemak Heritage Land Trust, Environmental Protection Agency, and Kenai Peninsula Borough, created a decision support tool for the Kenai Mountains to Sea project. This effort helped local planners evaluate the ecological value of land parcels being considered for conservation easement by contextualizing them more broadly using watershed-scale environmental data.

Natal Origins of Golden Eagles

Participated in a Golden Eagle migration field study, including trapping, tagging, and measuring eagles and other raptors and analyzing migration and winter range data. Mapped Golden Eagle natal origin regions using stable hydrogen isotope data and coauthored a scientific paper.

GOEA isotope map

Patterns of Caribou Use Prior to Industrial Development

Collaborated with on a resource selection analysis to assess habitat use patterns of caribou prior to industrial development of the National Petroleum Reserve – Alaska. Co-authored a scientific paper with scientists from private industry, government, and eNGOs including The Wilderness Society, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Bureau of Land Management, and ConocoPhillips.

Publications on conservation science and analysis

Marra, P. P., A. L, Scarpignato et al. In press. The Atlas of North America’s Migratory Birds: Tracking Movement Across the Seasons. Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ. Available here.

Seavy*, N. E., M. A. Smith*, W. V. DeLuca, E. J. Knight, C. J. Witko, S. P. Saunders, L. Taylor, D. Linero-Triana, J. Velásquez-Tibata, C. B. Wilsey, J. L. Deppe. 2025. Seasonal exposure to hemispheric conservation challenges influences population trends of migratory warblers (Parulidae). Global Change Biology 31(3):e70121. Available here. (* equal contribution as first authors)

Saunders, S. P., W. D. DeLuca, B. Bateman, J. L. Deppe, J. Grand, E. J. Knight, T. Meehan, N. L. Michel, N. E. Seavy, M. A. Smith, L. Taylor, C. J. Witko, C. B. Wilsey. 2025. Multispecies migratory connectivity indicates hemispheric-scale risk to bird populations from global change. Nature Ecology & Evolution. Available here.

Scarpignato, A., A. E. Huysman, M. F. Jimenez, C. J. Witko, A-L. Harrison, N. E. Seavy, M. A. Smith, J. L. Deppe, C. B. Wilsey, P. P. Marra. 2023. Shorfalls in tracking data available to inform North American migratory bird conservation. Biological Conservation 286(2023)110224. Available here.

Meehan, T., S. Saunders, W. DeLuca, N. Michel, J. Grand, J. Deppe, M. Jimenez, E. Knight, N. Seavy, M. Smith, L. Taylor, C. Witko, M. Akresh, D. Barber, E. Bayne, J. Beasley, J. Belant, R. Bierregaard, K. Bildstein, T. Boves, J. Brzorad, S. Campbell, A. Celis-Murillo, H. Cooke, R. Domenech, L. Goodrich, E. Gow, A. Haines, M. Hallworth, J. Hill, A. Holland, S. Jennings, R. Kays, D. King, S. Mackenzie, P. Marra, R. McCabe, K. McFarland, M. McGrady, R. Melcer Jr., D. R. Norris, R. Norvell, O. Rhodes, C. Rimmer, A. Scarpignato, A. Shreading, J. Watson, and C. Wilsey. 2022. Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere. Ecological Applications 32(7):e2679. Available here.

Audubon Alaska. 2019. An Assessment of Ecological Value and Vulnerability in the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas. Audubon Alaska, Anchorage, AK. Available here.

Smith, M. A., B. K. Sullender, W. C. Koeppen, K. J. Kuletz, H. M. Renner, and A. J. Poe. 2019. An assessment of climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc. PLoS ONE 14(4): e0214573. Available here.

Warnock, N. and M. A. Smith. 2018. The importance of Bristol Bay to marine birds of the world. In (C. A. Woody, ed.) The Globally Significant Natural Resources of Bristol Bay, Alaska. Plantation, FL: J. Ross Publishing, Inc.

Dominich, R., T. Pitz, K. Gray, and M. Smith. 2015. Estimating natal origins of migratory juvenile golden eagles using stable hydrogen isotopes. Journal of Raptor Research 49(3):308-315. Available here.

Smith, M.A., N. Walker, I. Stenhouse, C. Free, M. Kirchhoff, O. Romanenko, S. Senner, N. Warnock, V. Mendenhall. 2014. A New Map of Important Bird Areas in Alaska. Anchorage: Audubon Alaska. Available here.

Smith, M.A., N.J. Walker, C.M. Free, M.J. Kirchhoff, G.S. Drew, N. Warnock, I.J. Stenhouse. 2014. Identifying marine important bird areas using at-sea survey data. Biological Conservation 172:180-189. Available here.

Wilson, R.R., A.K. Prichard, L.S. Parrett, B.T. Person, G.M. Carroll, M.A. Smith, C.L. Rea, and D.A. Yokel. 2012. Summer resource selection and identification of important habitat prior to industrial development for the Teshekpuk caribou herd in northern Alaska. PLoS One 7(11):1-14. Available here.

Smith, M., N. Walker, C. Free, M. Kirchhoff, N. Warnock, A. Weinstein, T. Distler, and I. Stenhouse. 2012. Marine Important Bird Areas in Alaska: Identifying Globally Significant Sites Using Colony and At-sea Survey Data. Audubon Alaska: Anchorage. Available here.

Kirchhoff, M., M. Smith, and S. Wright. 2010. Abundance, Population Trend, and Distribution of Marbled Murrelets and Kittlitz’s Murrelets in Glacier Bay National Park. Prepared for the National Park Service and Alaska Department of Fish and Game. Anchorage: Audubon Alaska. Available here.

Smith, M.A. and C.T. Benton. 2008. Getting along on the range: Managing elk and cattle grazing interactions. In (H. Li. & F. Faruque, eds) GIS Best Practices: GIS and Science. Redlands, CA: Esri. Available here.

Smith, M., H. Hesseln, A. Washburn, D. Burke, and M. Davies. 2008. Sublette County Socioeconomic Impact Study: Phase I Report. Prepared for Sublette County, WY. January. Missoula, MT: Ecosystem Research Group.

Smith, M. and M.G. Hartwell. 2008. Little Blackfoot River Bridge Replacement Biological Assessment. Prepared for Montana Rail Link. Missoula, MT: Ecosystem Research Group.

Smith, M.A. 2007. Predicting Northern Goshawk Dynamics Using an Individual-based Spatial Model. Master’s Thesis. Missoula: University of Montana.

Hillis, J.M., M. Smith, J. Adams, and G. Kennett. 2007. Review of Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for the Pinedale Anticline Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Project. Prepared for State of Wyoming Governor’s Office. Missoula, MT: Ecosystem Research Group.

Hillis, J.M., G. Munther, M. Smith, J. Adams, and G. Kennett. 2006. State of Wyoming Recommendations on Performance Standards and Policy Considerations for the Oil Shale and Tar Sands Leasing Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement. Prepared for State of Wyoming Governor’s Office. Missoula, MT: Ecosystem Research Group.

Kennett, G., D. Bedunah, T. Benton, S. Babcock, and M. Smith. 2006. Elkhorn Vegetation Study: Phase II Final Report. Prepared for Elkhorn Working Group. Missoula, MT: Ecosystem Research Group.

Smith, M. 2006. Pinedale Anticline Project Area Wildlife Monitoring Data Trend Analysis. Prepared for Bureau of Land Management Pinedale Field Office. Missoula, MT: Ecosystem Research Group.

Smith, M., K. Izlar, and Z. Brandt. 2006. Introduction to Installing, Configuring, and Using Esri ArcSDE 9.1 SP1. Report prepared for Department of Geography, University of Montana.

Presentations on conservation science and analysis

M. A. Smith*, 2019. What are your gradient maps saying about your data? In North American Cartographic Information Society Annual Conference. Tacoma, WA. Recording available here.

M. A. Smith*, M. Goldman, E. Knight, and B. Sullender. 2019. An assessment of ecological value and vulnerability for the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas. In American Ornithological Society Annual Conference. Anchorage, AK.

M. Goldman*, M. A. Smith, E. Knight, B. Sullender, J. Warrenchuk, B. Mecum, and M. Zaleski. 2019. An assessment of ecological value and vulnerability for the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas. In Alaska Marine Science Symposium. Anchorage, AK.

B. Sullender*, E. Knight, and M. Smith. 2016. Reconciling spatial scales in bird conservation: The Kenai bird habitat assessment protocol. In 17th Alaska Bird Conference. Cordova, AK. Available here.

M. Smith*, 2016. Data to design: Identifying Important Bird Areas and seabird connectivity in the Alaskan Arctic. In Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) Workshop on Science and Tools for Developing Arctic Marine Protected Area Networks: Understanding Connectivity and Identifying Management Models. Washington, DC. Available here.

M. Smith*, W. Koeppen, A. Poe, K. Kuletz, H. Renner, B. Sullender, T. Van Pelt, J. Littell, E. Tyler, and J. Reynolds, 2016. Application of a scalable change detection tool to assess climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea, In Alaska Marine Science Symposium. Anchorage, AK. Available here.

M. Smith*, W. Koeppen, A. Poe, K. Kuletz, H. Renner, B. Sullender, T. Van Pelt, J. Littell, E. Tyler, and J. Reynolds, 2016. Application of a scalable change detection tool to assess climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea, In International Association of Landscape Ecologists World Congress. Portland, OR. Available here.

M. A. Smith*, N. Walker, I. Stenhouse, C. Free, M. Kirchhoff, O. Romanenko, S. Senner, N. Warnock, V. Mendenhall. A new map of Important Bird Areas in Alaska. In 16th Alaska Bird Conference. Juneau, AK. Available here.

M. Smith*, N. Walker, M. Kirchhoff, and C. Free. 2014. Mapping important areas for seabirds: How to draw the boundary line. In Society for Conservation and GIS Annual Conference. Monterey, CA. Available here.

M. A. Smith and N. J. Walker*, 2014. Identifying Important Bird Areas for waterfowl in terrestrial and coastal Alaska using aerial survey data. In Society for Conservation and GIS Annual Conference. Monterey, CA. Available here.

Smith, M. A.* and N. J. Walker, 2014. Using spatial climate change data to assess vulnerability across Alaska. In International Association of Landscape Ecologists U.S. Chapter Annual Conference. Anchorage, AK. Available here.

M. Smith*, N. Walker, M. Kirchhoff, and C. Free. 2013. Mapping important areas for seabirds: How to draw the boundary line. In Pacific Seabird Group Annual Conference. Portland, OR. Available here.

M. Smith*, N. Walker, C. Free, M. Kirchhoff, N. Warnock, and I. Stenhouse. 2013. Marine Important Bird Areas in Alaska. In Pacific Seabird Group Annual Conference. Portland, OR.

M. Kirchhoff*, J. Lindell, M. Smith, and J. Hodges. 2012. Population status and trend of the Kittlitz’s Murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) in Glacier Bay, Alaska. In 15th Alaska Bird Conference. Anchorage, AK.

M. Smith, N. Walker*, C. Free, M. Kirchhoff, N. Warnock, A. Weinstein, T. Distler, and I. Stenhouse. 2012. Marine Important Bird Areas in Alaska: Global sites for conservation. In 15th Alaska Bird Conference. Anchorage, AK.

M. A. Smith*, N. J. Walker, C. M. Free, M. J. Kirchhoff, N. Warnock, I. J. Stenhouse. 2012. A standardized method for identifying marine Important Bird Areas using at-sea survey data. In Alaska Marine Science Symposium. Anchorage, AK.

M. A. Smith*, N. J. Walker, C. M. Free, M. J. Kirchhoff, N. Warnock, I. J. Stenhouse. 2011. Identifying marine Important Bird Areas in Alaska: Progress toward a standardized method. In Annual conference of Arctic AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science). Dillingham, AK.

R. Wilson*, M. Smith, N. Walker, E. Witten, L. Chartier, and W. Loya. 2011. Cumulative impacts of industrial development and climate change on Teshekpuk Caribou Herd habitat. Poster presented at the 2011 Annual Conference of The Wildlife Society. Waikaloa, HI.

M. A. Smith*, M. Kirchhoff, and C. Free. 2010. Mapping important areas for seabirds: exploring solutions to common challenges. In 14th Alaska Bird Conference. Anchorage, AK.

S. K. Wright*, M. Kirchhoff, J. Lindell, M. Smith, J. Hodges. 2010. Spatial and temporal variation in marbled and Kittlitz’s Murrelets in Glacier Bay: Implications for survey design. Poster presented at the 2010 Annual Meeting of the Pacific Seabird Group in Long Beach, CA. Juneau: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Endangered Species Program.